能够自知其不知的世界模型:具有校准不确定性的可控视频生成 / World Models That Know When They Don't Know: Controllable Video Generation with Calibrated Uncertainty
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一种名为C3的新方法,它能让可控视频生成模型在合成视频时,不仅能预测未来画面,还能准确评估并可视化自己对每个画面区域预测结果的不确定程度,从而有效识别和定位可能出现的‘幻觉’或错误。
Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in instruction-guided video editing and world modeling in robotics. Despite these exceptional capabilities, controllable video models often hallucinate - generating future video frames that are misaligned with physical reality - which raises serious concerns in many tasks such as robot policy evaluation and planning. However, state-of-the-art video models lack the ability to assess and express their confidence, impeding hallucination mitigation. To rigorously address this challenge, we propose C3, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for training continuous-scale calibrated controllable video models for dense confidence estimation at the subpatch level, precisely localizing the uncertainty in each generated video frame. Our UQ method introduces three core innovations to empower video models to estimate their uncertainty. First, our method develops a novel framework that trains video models for correctness and calibration via strictly proper scoring rules. Second, we estimate the video model's uncertainty in latent space, avoiding training instability and prohibitive training costs associated with pixel-space approaches. Third, we map the dense latent-space uncertainty to interpretable pixel-level uncertainty in the RGB space for intuitive visualization, providing high-resolution uncertainty heatmaps that identify untrustworthy regions. Through extensive experiments on large-scale robot learning datasets (Bridge and DROID) and real-world evaluations, we demonstrate that our method not only provides calibrated uncertainty estimates within the training distribution, but also enables effective out-of-distribution detection.
能够自知其不知的世界模型:具有校准不确定性的可控视频生成 / World Models That Know When They Don't Know: Controllable Video Generation with Calibrated Uncertainty
这篇论文提出了一种名为C3的新方法,它能让可控视频生成模型在合成视频时,不仅能预测未来画面,还能准确评估并可视化自己对每个画面区域预测结果的不确定程度,从而有效识别和定位可能出现的‘幻觉’或错误。
源自 arXiv: 2512.05927