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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-01-29
📄 Abstract - Evaluating Prediction Uncertainty Estimates from BatchEnsemble

Deep learning models struggle with uncertainty estimation. Many approaches are either computationally infeasible or underestimate uncertainty. We investigate \textit{BatchEnsemble} as a general and scalable method for uncertainty estimation across both tabular and time series tasks. To extend BatchEnsemble to sequential modeling, we introduce GRUBE, a novel BatchEnsemble GRU cell. We compare the BatchEnsemble to Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensemble models. Our results show that BatchEnsemble matches the uncertainty estimation performance of deep ensembles, and clearly outperforms Monte Carlo dropout. GRUBE achieves similar or better performance in both prediction and uncertainty estimation. These findings show that BatchEnsemble and GRUBE achieve similar performance with fewer parameters and reduced training and inference time compared to traditional ensembles.

顶级标签: model evaluation machine learning theory
详细标签: uncertainty estimation ensemble methods batch ensemble time series gru 或 搜索:

评估BatchEnsemble的预测不确定性估计 / Evaluating Prediction Uncertainty Estimates from BatchEnsemble


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出并验证了BatchEnsemble作为一种高效且通用的方法,能够在减少计算成本和参数量的同时,达到与复杂集成模型相当的预测不确定性估计性能,尤其适用于表格和时间序列数据。

源自 arXiv: 2601.21581