菜单

关于 🐙 GitHub
arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-02
📄 Abstract - Universal Redundancies in Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find that leading transformer-based TSFMs exhibit redundant components in their intermediate layers. We introduce a set of tools for mechanistic interpretability of TSFMs, including ablations of specific components and direct logit attribution on the residual stream. Our findings are consistent across several leading TSFMs with diverse architectures, and across a diverse set of real-world and synthetic time-series datasets. We discover that all models in our study are robust to ablations of entire layers. Furthermore, we develop a theoretical framework framing transformers as kernel regressors, motivating a purely intrinsic strategy for ablating heads based on the stable rank of the per-head projection matrices. Using this approach, we uncover the specific heads responsible for degenerate phenomena widely observed in TSFMs, such as parroting of motifs from the context and seasonality bias. Our study sheds light on the universal properties of this emerging class of architectures for continuous-time sequence modeling.

顶级标签: model evaluation theory machine learning
详细标签: time series foundation models transformer interpretability redundancy analysis kernel regression 或 搜索:

时序基础模型中的普遍冗余性 / Universal Redundancies in Time Series Foundation Models


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文通过研究发现,当前主流的基于Transformer的时序基础模型在中间层存在大量冗余组件,即使移除整个层或特定注意力头,模型性能依然稳健,并揭示了这些冗余结构是导致模型出现重复模式预测和季节性偏见等常见问题的根源。

源自 arXiv: 2602.01605