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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-04
📄 Abstract - Let Experts Feel Uncertainty: A Multi-Expert Label Distribution Approach to Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

顶级标签: model training machine learning systems
详细标签: probabilistic forecasting time series uncertainty quantification mixture of experts distributional learning 或 搜索:

让专家感知不确定性:一种用于概率时间序列预测的多专家标签分布方法 / Let Experts Feel Uncertainty: A Multi-Expert Label Distribution Approach to Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种新的多专家学习框架,通过让多个‘专家’模型学习预测结果的分布,而不是单一数值,从而在保持高预测精度的同时,更好地量化和解释时间序列预测中的不确定性。

源自 arXiv: 2602.04678