一种基于分解的多元时间序列预测状态空间模型 / A Decomposition-based State Space Model for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一个名为DecompSSM的新模型,它通过三个并行的深度状态空间分支分别捕捉时间序列的趋势、季节性和不规则残差成分,并利用跨变量信息共享和自适应时间尺度,显著提升了多元时间序列在多个领域的预测精度。
Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for decision-making in domains such as weather, energy, and finance. It remains challenging because real-world sequences intertwine slow trends, multi-rate seasonalities, and irregular residuals. Existing methods often rely on rigid, hand-crafted decompositions or generic end-to-end architectures that entangle components and underuse structure shared across variables. To address these limitations, we propose DecompSSM, an end-to-end decomposition framework using three parallel deep state space model branches to capture trend, seasonal, and residual components. The model features adaptive temporal scales via an input-dependent predictor, a refinement module for shared cross-variable context, and an auxiliary loss that enforces reconstruction and orthogonality. Across standard benchmarks (ECL, Weather, ETTm2, and PEMS04), DecompSSM outperformed strong baselines, indicating the effectiveness of combining component-wise deep state space models and global context refinement.
一种基于分解的多元时间序列预测状态空间模型 / A Decomposition-based State Space Model for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
这篇论文提出了一个名为DecompSSM的新模型,它通过三个并行的深度状态空间分支分别捕捉时间序列的趋势、季节性和不规则残差成分,并利用跨变量信息共享和自适应时间尺度,显著提升了多元时间序列在多个领域的预测精度。
源自 arXiv: 2602.05389