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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-05
📄 Abstract - Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting for Volatile Markets Using Foundation Models with Regularization Strategy

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for energy markets stakeholders (e.g. grid operators, energy traders, policymakers) but remains challenging due to the inherent volatility and nonlinearity of price signals. Traditional statistical and deep learning (DL) models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies and integrate heterogeneous data effectively. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong performance in general time series forecasting tasks, such as traffic forecasting and weather forecasting. However, their effectiveness in day-ahead EPF, particularly in volatile markets, remains underexplored. This paper presents a spike regularization strategy and evaluates a wide range of TSFMs, including Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs), MOIRAI, MOMENT, and TimesFM, against traditional statistical and DL models such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long-short Term Memory (LSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network - LSTM (CNN-LSTM) using half-hourly wholesale market data with volatile trends in Singapore. Exogenous factors (e.g. weather and calendar variables) are also incorporated into models where applicable. Results demonstrate that TSFMs consistently outperform traditional approaches, achieving up to 37.4% improvement in MAPE across various evaluation settings. The findings offer practical guidance for improving forecast accuracy and decision-making in volatile electricity markets.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation systems
详细标签: time series forecasting electricity price foundation models volatile markets regularization 或 搜索:

面向波动市场的日前电价预测:采用正则化策略的基础模型研究 / Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting for Volatile Markets Using Foundation Models with Regularization Strategy


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种针对电价尖峰的正则化策略,并证明在波动剧烈的电力市场中,时间序列基础模型在预测日前电价时,比传统的统计和深度学习模型更准确,最高可将预测误差降低37.4%。

源自 arXiv: 2602.05430