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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-05
📄 Abstract - Probabilistic Multi-Regional Solar Power Forecasting with Any-Quantile Recurrent Neural Networks

The increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation introduces significant uncertainty into power system operation, necessitating forecasting approaches that extend beyond deterministic point predictions. This paper proposes an any-quantile probabilistic forecasting framework for multi-regional PV power generation based on the Any-Quantile Recurrent Neural Network (AQ-RNN). The model integrates an any-quantile forecasting paradigm with a dual-track recurrent architecture that jointly processes series-specific and cross-regional contextual information, supported by dilated recurrent cells, patch-based temporal modeling, and a dynamic ensemble mechanism. The proposed framework enables the estimation of calibrated conditional quantiles at arbitrary probability levels within a single trained model and effectively exploits spatial dependencies to enhance robustness at the system level. The approach is evaluated using 30 years of hourly PV generation data from 259 European regions and compared against established statistical and neural probabilistic baselines. The results demonstrate consistent improvements in forecast accuracy, calibration, and prediction interval quality, underscoring the suitability of the proposed method for uncertainty-aware energy management and operational decision-making in renewable-dominated power systems.

顶级标签: machine learning systems model training
详细标签: probabilistic forecasting recurrent neural networks solar power multi-regional quantile regression 或 搜索:

基于任意分位数循环神经网络的多区域太阳能发电概率预测 / Probabilistic Multi-Regional Solar Power Forecasting with Any-Quantile Recurrent Neural Networks


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种新的神经网络模型,能够同时预测多个地区太阳能发电量的概率分布,为电力系统在可再生能源波动下进行更可靠的风险管理和运营决策提供了有力工具。

源自 arXiv: 2602.05660