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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-10
📄 Abstract - Statistical benchmarking of transformer models in low signal-to-noise time-series forecasting

We study the performance of transformer architectures for multivariate time-series forecasting in low-data regimes consisting of only a few years of daily observations. Using synthetically generated processes with known temporal and cross-sectional dependency structures and varying signal-to-noise ratios, we conduct bootstrapped experiments that enable direct evaluation via out-of-sample correlations with the optimal ground-truth predictor. We show that two-way attention transformers, which alternate between temporal and cross-sectional self-attention, can outperform standard baselines-Lasso, boosting methods, and fully connected multilayer perceptrons-across a wide range of settings, including low signal-to-noise regimes. We further introduce a dynamic sparsification procedure for attention matrices applied during training, and demonstrate that it becomes significantly effective in noisy environments, where the correlation between the target variable and the optimal predictor is on the order of a few percent. Analysis of the learned attention patterns reveals interpretable structure and suggests connections to sparsity-inducing regularization in classical regression, providing insight into why these models generalize effectively under noise.

顶级标签: model evaluation machine learning natural language processing
详细标签: time-series forecasting transformer models low signal-to-noise attention sparsification benchmarking 或 搜索:

低信噪比时间序列预测中Transformer模型的统计基准测试 / Statistical benchmarking of transformer models in low signal-to-noise time-series forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这项研究证明,在数据量少、噪声大的时间序列预测任务中,采用交替进行时序和跨序列自注意力的双向Transformer模型,配合一种动态稀疏化训练技术,能够比传统机器学习方法更有效地捕捉数据中的潜在规律并实现更准确的预测。

源自 arXiv: 2602.09869