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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-16
📄 Abstract - Bounding Probabilities of Causation with Partial Causal Diagrams

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates, require complete causal graphs, or rely on restrictive binary settings, limiting their practical use. In real-world applications, causal information is often partial but nontrivial. This paper proposes a general framework for bounding probabilities of causation using partial causal information. We show how the available structural or statistical information can be systematically incorporated as constraints in a optimization programming formulation, yielding tighter and formally valid bounds without full identifiability. This approach extends the applicability of probabilities of causation to realistic settings where causal knowledge is incomplete but informative.

顶级标签: theory machine learning
详细标签: causal inference counterfactual reasoning partial identification probability bounds causal diagrams 或 搜索:

基于部分因果图的因果概率边界估计 / Bounding Probabilities of Causation with Partial Causal Diagrams


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种新方法,能够在因果信息不完整的情况下,通过数学优化模型有效估算个体层面因果关系的概率范围,从而将因果推断的应用扩展到更贴近现实的复杂场景。

源自 arXiv: 2602.14503