CEPAE:用于时间序列反事实推理的条件熵惩罚自编码器 / CEPAE: Conditional Entropy-Penalized Autoencoders for Time Series Counterfactuals
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为CEPAE的新方法,它通过给自编码器的潜在表示增加一个熵惩罚项,来更准确地预测时间序列数据在假设发生不同事件(如市场变动)后会产生的结果,并在实验中表现优于现有方法。
The ability to accurately perform counterfactual inference on time series is crucial for decision-making in fields like finance, healthcare, and marketing, as it allows us to understand the impact of events or treatments on outcomes over time. In this paper, we introduce a new counterfactual inference approach tailored to time series data impacted by market events, which is motivated by an industrial application. Utilizing the abduction-action-prediction procedure and the Structural Causal Model framework, we first adapt methods based on variational autoencoders and adversarial autoencoders, both previously used in counterfactual literature although not in time series settings. Then, we present the Conditional Entropy-Penalized Autoencoder (CEPAE), a novel autoencoder-based approach for counterfactual inference, which employs an entropy penalization loss over the latent space to encourage disentangled data representations. We validate our approach both theoretically and experimentally on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, showing that CEPAE generally outperforms the other approaches in the evaluated metrics.
CEPAE:用于时间序列反事实推理的条件熵惩罚自编码器 / CEPAE: Conditional Entropy-Penalized Autoencoders for Time Series Counterfactuals
本文提出了一种名为CEPAE的新方法,它通过给自编码器的潜在表示增加一个熵惩罚项,来更准确地预测时间序列数据在假设发生不同事件(如市场变动)后会产生的结果,并在实验中表现优于现有方法。
源自 arXiv: 2602.15546