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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-23
📄 Abstract - LEVDA: Latent Ensemble Variational Data Assimilation via Differentiable Dynamics

Long-range geophysical forecasts are fundamentally limited by chaotic dynamics and numerical errors. While data assimilation can mitigate these issues, classical variational smoothers require computationally expensive tangent-linear and adjoint models. Conversely, recent efficient latent filtering methods often enforce weak trajectory-level constraints and assume fixed observation grids. To bridge this gap, we propose Latent Ensemble Variational Data Assimilation (LEVDA), an ensemble-space variational smoother that operates in the low-dimensional latent space of a pretrained differentiable neural dynamics surrogate. By performing four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) optimization within an ensemble subspace, LEVDA jointly assimilates states and unknown parameters without the need for adjoint code or auxiliary observation-to-latent encoders. Leveraging the fully differentiable, continuous-in-time-and-space nature of the surrogate, LEVDA naturally accommodates highly irregular sampling at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations. Across three challenging geophysical benchmarks, LEVDA matches or outperforms state-of-the-art latent filtering baselines under severe observational sparsity while providing more reliable uncertainty quantification. Simultaneously, it achieves substantially improved assimilation accuracy and computational efficiency compared to full-state 4DEnVar.

顶级标签: systems model training machine learning
详细标签: data assimilation ensemble methods variational inference differentiable models geophysical forecasting 或 搜索:

LEVDA:基于可微分动力学的潜在集成变分数据同化方法 / LEVDA: Latent Ensemble Variational Data Assimilation via Differentiable Dynamics


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为LEVDA的新型数据同化方法,它通过在预训练神经网络的低维潜在空间中进行优化,高效且准确地融合观测数据与地球物理模型,以改进长期预报并量化不确定性,同时避免了传统方法对复杂伴随模型和规则观测网格的依赖。

源自 arXiv: 2602.19406