ASTRI-Horn望远镜监测数据的多元时间序列预测:一种正常行为模型 / Multivariate time-series forecasting of ASTRI-Horn monitoring data: A Normal Behavior Model
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本研究为ASTRI-Horn切伦科夫望远镜开发了一个基于多层感知机的正常行为预测模型,能够同时准确预测多个传感器数据长达数小时,其性能媲美更复杂的LSTM网络但训练更快,为实现在线异常检测和预测性维护系统奠定了基础。
This study presents a Normal Behavior Model (NBM) developed to forecast monitoring time-series data from the ASTRI-Horn Cherenkov telescope under normal operating conditions. The analysis focused on 15 physical variables acquired by the Telescope Control Unit between September 2022 and July 2024, representing sensor measurements from the Azimuth and Elevation motors. After data cleaning, resampling, feature selection, and correlation analysis, the dataset was segmented into fixed-length intervals, in which the first I samples represented the input sequence provided to the model, while the forecast length, T, indicated the number of future time steps to be predicted. A sliding-window technique was then applied to increase the number of intervals. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) was trained to perform multivariate forecasting across all features simultaneously. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Normalized Median Absolute Deviation (NMAD), and it was also benchmarked against a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The MLP model demonstrated consistent results across different features and I-T configurations, and matched the performance of the LSTM while converging faster. It achieved an MSE of 0.019+/-0.003 and an NMAD of 0.032+/-0.009 on the test set under its best configuration (4 hidden layers, 720 units per layer, and I-T lengths of 300 samples each, corresponding to 5 hours at 1-minute resolution). Extending the forecast horizon up to 6.5 hours-the maximum allowed by this configuration-did not degrade performance, confirming the model's effectiveness in providing reliable hour-scale predictions. The proposed NBM provides a powerful tool for enabling early anomaly detection in online ASTRI-Horn monitoring time series, offering a basis for the future development of a prognostics and health management system that supports predictive maintenance.
ASTRI-Horn望远镜监测数据的多元时间序列预测:一种正常行为模型 / Multivariate time-series forecasting of ASTRI-Horn monitoring data: A Normal Behavior Model
本研究为ASTRI-Horn切伦科夫望远镜开发了一个基于多层感知机的正常行为预测模型,能够同时准确预测多个传感器数据长达数小时,其性能媲美更复杂的LSTM网络但训练更快,为实现在线异常检测和预测性维护系统奠定了基础。
源自 arXiv: 2602.19984