基于联邦平均的连续时间马尔可夫链风险模型用于联邦桥梁退化评估 / FedAvg-Based CTMC Hazard Model for Federated Bridge Deterioration Assessment
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种基于联邦学习的桥梁退化评估方法,让多个机构能在不共享敏感原始数据的情况下,共同训练一个连续时间马尔可夫链风险模型,从而获得比仅使用本地数据更准确的全局基准模型,用于支持基于证据的桥梁全生命周期规划。
Bridge periodic inspection records contain sensitive information about public infrastructure, making cross-organizational data sharing impractical under existing data governance constraints. We propose a federated framework for estimating a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) hazard model of bridge deterioration, enabling municipalities to collaboratively train a shared benchmark model without transferring raw inspection records. Each User holds local inspection data and trains a log-linear hazard model over three deterioration-direction transitions -- Good$\to$Minor, Good$\to$Severe, and Minor$\to$Severe -- with covariates for bridge age, coastline distance, and deck area. Local optimization is performed via mini-batch stochastic gradient descent on the CTMC log-likelihood, and only a 12-dimensional pseudo-gradient vector is uploaded to a central server per communication round. The server aggregates User updates using sample-weighted Federated Averaging (FedAvg) with momentum and gradient clipping. All experiments in this paper are conducted on fully synthetic data generated from a known ground-truth parameter set with region-specific heterogeneity, enabling controlled evaluation of federated convergence behaviour. Simulation results across heterogeneous Users show consistent convergence of the average negative log-likelihood, with the aggregated gradient norm decreasing as User scale increases. Furthermore, the federated update mechanism provides a natural participation incentive: Users who register their local inspection datasets on a shared technical-standard platform receive in return the periodically updated global benchmark parameters -- information that cannot be obtained from local data alone -- thereby enabling evidence-based life-cycle planning without surrendering data sovereignty.
基于联邦平均的连续时间马尔可夫链风险模型用于联邦桥梁退化评估 / FedAvg-Based CTMC Hazard Model for Federated Bridge Deterioration Assessment
本文提出了一种基于联邦学习的桥梁退化评估方法,让多个机构能在不共享敏感原始数据的情况下,共同训练一个连续时间马尔可夫链风险模型,从而获得比仅使用本地数据更准确的全局基准模型,用于支持基于证据的桥梁全生命周期规划。
源自 arXiv: 2602.20194