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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-02-26
📄 Abstract - TEFL: Prediction-Residual-Guided Rolling Forecasting for Multi-Horizon Time Series

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as transportation, energy, and meteorology. Despite their success, modern deep forecasting models are typically trained to minimize point-wise prediction loss without leveraging the rich information contained in past prediction residuals from rolling forecasts - residuals that reflect persistent biases, unmodeled patterns, or evolving dynamics. We propose TEFL (Temporal Error Feedback Learning), a unified learning framework that explicitly incorporates these historical residuals into the forecasting pipeline during both training and evaluation. To make this practical in deep multi-step settings, we address three key challenges: (1) selecting observable multi-step residuals under the partial observability of rolling forecasts, (2) integrating them through a lightweight low-rank adapter to preserve efficiency and prevent overfitting, and (3) designing a two-stage training procedure that jointly optimizes the base forecaster and error module. Extensive experiments across 10 real-world datasets and 5 backbone architectures show that TEFL consistently improves accuracy, reducing MAE by 5-10% on average. Moreover, it demonstrates strong robustness under abrupt changes and distribution shifts, with error reductions exceeding 10% (up to 19.5%) in challenging scenarios. By embedding residual-based feedback directly into the learning process, TEFL offers a simple, general, and effective enhancement to modern deep forecasting systems.

顶级标签: machine learning model training model evaluation
详细标签: time series forecasting residual feedback multi-horizon prediction robustness low-rank adaptation 或 搜索:

TEFL:面向多步时间序列预测的残差引导滚动预测方法 / TEFL: Prediction-Residual-Guided Rolling Forecasting for Multi-Horizon Time Series


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一个名为TEFL的通用学习框架,通过将历史预测误差作为反馈信息融入深度学习模型,有效提升了多步时间序列预测的准确性和鲁棒性,在多种实际数据集上平均降低了5-10%的预测误差。

源自 arXiv: 2602.22520