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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-02
📄 Abstract - Causal Effects with Unobserved Unit Types in Interacting Human-AI Systems

We study experiments on interacting populations of humans and AI agents, where both unit types and the interaction network remain unobserved. Although causal effects propagate throughout the system, the goal is to estimate effects on humans. Examples include online platforms where human users interact alongside AI-driven accounts. We assume a human-AI prior that gives each unit a probability of being human. While humans cannot be distinguished at the unit level, the prior allows us to compute the average human composition within large subpopulations. We then model outcome dynamics through a causal message passing (CMP) framework and analyze sample-mean outcomes across subpopulations. We show that by constructing subpopulations that vary in expected human composition and treatment exposure, one can consistently recover human-specific causal effects. Our results characterize when distributional knowledge of population composition (without observing unit types or the interaction network) is sufficient for identification. We validate the approach on a simulated human-AI platform driven by behaviorally differentiated LLM agents. Together, these results provide a theoretical and practical framework for experimentation in emerging human-AI systems.

顶级标签: agents systems theory
详细标签: causal inference human-ai interaction unobserved types experimental design message passing 或 搜索:

在未观测单元类型的人机交互系统中估计因果效应 / Causal Effects with Unobserved Unit Types in Interacting Human-AI Systems


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种新方法,能够在无法直接区分用户是真人还是AI、也看不清他们之间如何互动的复杂系统(比如在线平台)中,依然能准确估计出某项干预措施对真人用户产生的真实因果影响。

源自 arXiv: 2603.01339