评估大规模网络犯罪论坛中的犯罪披露模式 / Assessing Crime Disclosure Patterns in a Large-Scale Cybercrime Forum
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本研究首次利用大语言模型对大型网络犯罪论坛的数百万帖子进行分析,发现尽管有相当一部分用户会直接披露犯罪活动,但大多数用户行为克制,倾向于从模糊内容逐步升级,这为执法部门区分良性与犯罪内容提供了新见解。
Cybercrime forums play a central role in the cybercrime ecosystem, serving as hubs for the exchange of illicit goods, services, and knowledge. Previous studies have explored the market and social structures of these forums, but less is known about the behavioral dynamics of users, particularly regarding participants' disclosure of criminal activity. This study provides the first large-scale assessment of crime disclosure patterns in a major cybercrime forum, analysing over 3.5 million posts from nearly 300k users. Using a three-level classification scheme (benign, grey, and crime) and a scalable labelling pipeline powered by large language models (LLMs), we measure the level of crime disclosure present in initial posts, analyse how participants switch between levels, and assess how crime disclosure behavior relates to private communications. Our results show that crime disclosure is relatively normative: one quarter of initial posts include explicit crime-related content, and more than one third of users disclose criminal activity at least once in their initial posts. At the same time, most participants show restraint, with over two-thirds posting only benign or grey content and typically escalating disclosure gradually. Grey initial posts are particularly prominent, indicating that many users avoid overt statements and instead anchor their activity in ambiguous content. The study highlights the value of LLM-based text classification and Markov chain modelling for capturing crime disclosure patterns, offering insights for law enforcement efforts aimed at distinguishing benign, grey, and criminal content in cybercrime forums.
评估大规模网络犯罪论坛中的犯罪披露模式 / Assessing Crime Disclosure Patterns in a Large-Scale Cybercrime Forum
本研究首次利用大语言模型对大型网络犯罪论坛的数百万帖子进行分析,发现尽管有相当一部分用户会直接披露犯罪活动,但大多数用户行为克制,倾向于从模糊内容逐步升级,这为执法部门区分良性与犯罪内容提供了新见解。
源自 arXiv: 2603.01624