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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-02
📄 Abstract - Practical Deep Heteroskedastic Regression

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the target depends on the input, a common approach is to train a neural network that parameterizes the mean and the variance of the predictive distribution. Still, training deep heteroskedastic regression models poses practical challenges in the trade-off between uncertainty quantification and mean prediction, such as optimization difficulties, representation collapse, and variance overfitting. In this work we identify previously undiscussed fallacies and propose a simple and efficient procedure that addresses these challenges jointly by post-hoc fitting a variance model across the intermediate layers of a pretrained network on a hold-out dataset. We demonstrate that our method achieves on-par or state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification on several molecular graph datasets, without compromising mean prediction accuracy and remaining cheap to use at prediction time.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: heteroskedastic regression uncertainty quantification deep learning variance modeling optimization 或 搜索:

实用的深度异方差回归方法 / Practical Deep Heteroskedastic Regression


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种简单高效的深度学习方法,通过在预训练网络的中间层上拟合方差模型,有效解决了异方差回归中不确定性量化与均值预测难以兼顾的难题,在保持预测精度的同时实现了优异的不确定性估计。

源自 arXiv: 2603.01750