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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-02
📄 Abstract - De-paradox Tree: Breaking Down Simpson's Paradox via A Kernel-Based Partition Algorithm

Real-world observational datasets and machine learning have revolutionized data-driven decision-making, yet many models rely on empirical associations that may be misleading due to confounding and subgroup heterogeneity. Simpson's paradox exemplifies this challenge, where aggregated and subgroup-level associations contradict each other, leading to misleading conclusions. Existing methods provide limited support for detecting and interpreting such paradoxical associations, especially for practitioners without deep causal expertise. We introduce De-paradox Tree, an interpretable algorithm designed to uncover hidden subgroup patterns behind paradoxical associations under assumed causal structures involving confounders and effect heterogeneity. It employs novel split criteria and balancing-based procedures to adjust for confounders and homogenize heterogeneous effects through recursive partitioning. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, De-paradox Tree builds simpler, more interpretable trees, selects relevant covariates, and identifies nested opposite effects while ensuring robust estimation of causal effects when causally admissible variables are provided. Our approach addresses the limitations of traditional causal inference and machine learning methods by introducing an interpretable framework that supports non-expert practitioners while explicitly acknowledging causal assumptions and scope limitations, enabling more reliable and informed decision-making in complex observational data environments.

顶级标签: machine learning theory data
详细标签: causal inference simpson's paradox interpretability observational data recursive partitioning 或 搜索:

解悖树:通过基于核的分区算法破解辛普森悖论 / De-paradox Tree: Breaking Down Simpson's Paradox via A Kernel-Based Partition Algorithm


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种名为‘解悖树’的可解释算法,它能自动发现并解释数据中因混杂因素和子群差异导致的辛普森悖论现象,帮助非专家用户在复杂观测数据中做出更可靠的决策。

源自 arXiv: 2603.02174