用于干预下有效选择性保形推断的部分因果结构学习 / Partial Causal Structure Learning for Valid Selective Conformal Inference under Interventions
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一种新方法,在不知道干预如何影响变量的情况下,通过学习部分因果信息来更精确地预测不确定性,确保预测结果即使在数据有部分“污染”时依然可靠,并在基因干预实验中验证了有效性。
Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics, exchangeability often holds only within subsets of interventions that leave a target variable "unaffected" (e.g., non-descendants of an intervened node in a causal graph). We study the practical regime where this invariance structure is unknown and must be learned from data. Our contributions are: (i) a contamination-robust conformal coverage theorem that quantifies how misclassification of "unaffected" calibration examples degrades coverage via an explicit function $g(\delta,n)$ of the contamination fraction and calibration set size, providing a finite-sample lower bound that holds for arbitrary contaminating distributions; (ii) a task-driven partial causal learning formulation that estimates only the binary descendant indicators $Z_{a,i}=\mathbf{1}\{i\in\mathrm{desc}(a)\}$ needed for selective calibration, rather than the full causal graph; and (iii) algorithms for descendant discovery via perturbation intersection patterns (differentially affected variable set intersections across interventions), and for approximate distance-to-intervention estimation via local invariant causal prediction. We provide recovery conditions under which contamination is controlled. Experiments on synthetic linear structural equation models (SEMs) validate the bound: under controlled contamination up to $\delta=0.30$, the corrected procedure maintains $\ge 0.95$ coverage while uncorrected selective CP degrades to $0.867$. A proof-of-concept on Replogle K562 CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) perturbation data demonstrates applicability to real genomic screens.
用于干预下有效选择性保形推断的部分因果结构学习 / Partial Causal Structure Learning for Valid Selective Conformal Inference under Interventions
这篇论文提出了一种新方法,在不知道干预如何影响变量的情况下,通过学习部分因果信息来更精确地预测不确定性,确保预测结果即使在数据有部分“污染”时依然可靠,并在基因干预实验中验证了有效性。
源自 arXiv: 2603.02204