菜单

关于 🐙 GitHub
arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-03
📄 Abstract - Towards Accurate and Interpretable Time-series Forecasting: A Polynomial Learning Approach

Time series forecasting enables early warning and has driven asset performance management from traditional planned maintenance to predictive maintenance. However, the lack of interpretability in forecasting methods undermines users' trust and complicates debugging for developers. Consequently, interpretable time-series forecasting has attracted increasing research attention. Nevertheless, existing methods suffer from several limitations, including insufficient modeling of temporal dependencies, lack of feature-level interpretability to support early warning, and difficulty in simultaneously achieving the accuracy and interpretability. This paper proposes the interpretable polynomial learning (IPL) method, which integrates interpretability into the model structure by explicitly modeling original features and their interactions of arbitrary order through polynomial representations. This design preserves temporal dependencies, provides feature-level interpretability, and offers a flexible trade-off between prediction accuracy and interpretability by adjusting the polynomial degree. We evaluate IPL on simulated and Bitcoin price data, showing that it achieves high prediction accuracy with superior interpretability compared with widely used explainability methods. Experiments on field-collected antenna data further demonstrate that IPL yields simpler and more efficient early warning mechanisms.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation data
详细标签: time series forecasting interpretability polynomial learning predictive maintenance model explainability 或 搜索:

迈向准确且可解释的时间序列预测:一种多项式学习方法 / Towards Accurate and Interpretable Time-series Forecasting: A Polynomial Learning Approach


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种名为可解释多项式学习(IPL)的新方法,它通过多项式表示直接建模原始特征及其任意阶交互,从而在保持高预测精度的同时,提供了清晰的特征级解释性,并能灵活权衡精度与可解释性。

源自 arXiv: 2603.02906