无需自回归生成,从大语言模型中提取数值预测分布 / Eliciting Numerical Predictive Distributions of LLMs Without Autoregression
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一种新方法,通过分析大语言模型内部的隐藏状态来直接预测数值任务(如时间序列预测)的统计特性(如均值、中位数、不确定性),从而避免了传统需要多次采样、计算成本高昂的自回归生成过程。
Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.
无需自回归生成,从大语言模型中提取数值预测分布 / Eliciting Numerical Predictive Distributions of LLMs Without Autoregression
这篇论文提出了一种新方法,通过分析大语言模型内部的隐藏状态来直接预测数值任务(如时间序列预测)的统计特性(如均值、中位数、不确定性),从而避免了传统需要多次采样、计算成本高昂的自回归生成过程。
源自 arXiv: 2603.02913