菜单

关于 🐙 GitHub
arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-03
📄 Abstract - Generalized Bayes for Causal Inference

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model for the data-generating process, including high-dimensional nuisance components such as propensity scores and outcome regressions. Standard posteriors are thus vulnerable to strong modeling choices, including complex prior elicitation. In this paper, we propose a generalized Bayesian framework for causal inference. Our framework avoids explicit likelihood modeling; instead, we place priors directly on the causal estimands and update these using an identification-driven loss function, which yields generalized posteriors for causal effects. As a result, our framework turns existing loss-based causal estimators into estimators with full uncertainty quantification. Our framework is flexible and applicable to a broad range of causal estimands (e.g., ATE, CATE). Further, our framework can be applied on top of state-of-the-art causal machine learning pipelines (e.g., Neyman-orthogonal meta-learners). For Neyman-orthogonal losses, we show that the generalized posteriors converge to their oracle counterparts and remain robust to first-stage nuisance estimation error. With calibration, we thus obtain valid frequentist uncertainty even when nuisance estimators converge at slower-than-parametric rates. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed framework offers causal effect estimation with calibrated uncertainty across several causal inference settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible framework for constructing generalized Bayesian posteriors for causal machine learning.

顶级标签: theory machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: causal inference bayesian inference uncertainty quantification generalized bayes nuisance estimation 或 搜索:

因果推断的广义贝叶斯方法 / Generalized Bayes for Causal Inference


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种新的广义贝叶斯框架,通过直接对因果估计量设定先验并使用基于识别的损失函数进行更新,从而为因果机器学习提供了灵活且稳健的不确定性量化方法,无需对复杂的数据生成过程进行建模。

源自 arXiv: 2603.03035