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Abstract - EveryQuery: Zero-Shot Clinical Prediction via Task-Conditioned Pretraining over Electronic Health Records
Foundation models pretrained on electronic health records (EHR) have demonstrated zero-shot clinical prediction capabilities by generating synthetic patient futures and aggregating statistics over sampled trajectories. However, this autoregressive inference procedure is computationally expensive, statistically noisy, and not natively promptable because users cannot directly condition predictions on specific clinical questions. In this preliminary work, we introduce EveryQuery, an EHR foundation model that achieves zero-shot inference through task-conditioned pre-training. Rather than generating future events, EveryQuery takes as input a patient's history and a structured query specifying a clinical task, and directly estimates the likelihood of the outcome occurring in the future window via a single forward pass. EveryQuery realizes this capability by pre-training over randomly sampled combinations of query tasks and patient contexts, directly training the model to produce correct answers to arbitrary input prompts. This enables zero-shot prediction for any task in the query space without finetuning, linear probing, or trajectory generation. On MIMIC-IV, EveryQuery outperforms an autoregressive baseline on 82% of 39 randomly sampled prediction tasks, with a mean AUC improvement of +0.16 (95% CI: [0.10,0.22]). This advantage remains consistent on tasks that were explicitly held out from the pre-training distribution. Further, EveryQuery's performance gains are most pronounced for rare clinical events, affirming and demonstrating a solution to the fundamental limitation of autoregressive inference for low-prevalence outcomes. However, at present, EveryQuery underperforms on tasks requiring disjunctive reasoning over multiple codes, such as 30-day readmission, exposing a concrete expressiveness limitation of the current query language.
EveryQuery:通过电子健康记录的任务条件预训练实现零样本临床预测 /
EveryQuery: Zero-Shot Clinical Prediction via Task-Conditioned Pretraining over Electronic Health Records
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一种名为EveryQuery的新模型,它通过一种特殊的‘任务条件’预训练方法,能够直接根据病人的历史数据和具体的临床问题,在无需额外训练的情况下,快速且准确地预测未来医疗事件,尤其在预测罕见病症方面表现更优。