用于卫星电子设备在线可靠性预测的自适应主动学习方法 / Adaptive Active Learning for Online Reliability Prediction of Satellite Electronics
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种结合了新型退化模型与自适应采样策略的在线预测框架,能够在数据有限的情况下,显著提高卫星电子设备在轨可靠性的预测精度并降低数据需求。
Accurate on-orbit reliability prediction for satellite electronics is often hindered by limited data availability, varying operational conditions, and considerable unit-to-unit variability. To overcome these obstacles, this paper proposes a novel integrated online reliability prediction framework. The main contributions are twofold. First, a Wiener process-based degradation model is developed, incorporating a generalized Arrhenius link function, individual random effects, and spatial correlations among adjacent units. A customized maximum likelihood estimation method is further devised to facilitate efficient and accurate parameter inference. Second, a two-stage active learning sampling scheme is designed to adaptively enhance prediction accuracy. This strategy initially selects representative units based on spatial configuration, and subsequently determines optimal sampling times using a comprehensive criterion that balances unit-specific information, model uncertainty, and degradation dynamics. Numerical experiments and a practical case study from the Tiangong space station demonstrate that the proposed method markedly improves reliability prediction accuracy while significantly reducing data requirements, offering an efficient solution for the prognostic and health management of complex satellite electronic systems.
用于卫星电子设备在线可靠性预测的自适应主动学习方法 / Adaptive Active Learning for Online Reliability Prediction of Satellite Electronics
本文提出了一种结合了新型退化模型与自适应采样策略的在线预测框架,能够在数据有限的情况下,显著提高卫星电子设备在轨可靠性的预测精度并降低数据需求。
源自 arXiv: 2603.09058