超越极性:基于多维LLM情感信号预测WTI原油期货收益 / Beyond Polarity: Multi-Dimensional LLM Sentiment Signals for WTI Crude Oil Futures Return Prediction
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文研究发现,利用大型语言模型从新闻中提取包括相关性、极性、强度、不确定性和前瞻性在内的多维情感信号,比传统的单一极性情感分析更能有效预测WTI原油期货的周度收益,其中情感强度和不确定性是尤其重要的预测指标。
Forecasting crude oil prices remains challenging because market-relevant information is embedded in large volumes of unstructured news and is not fully captured by traditional polarity-based sentiment measures. This paper examines whether multi-dimensional sentiment signals extracted by large language models improve the prediction of weekly WTI crude oil futures returns. Using energy-sector news articles from 2020 to 2025, we construct five sentiment dimensions covering relevance, polarity, intensity, uncertainty, and forwardness based on GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and two benchmark models, FinBERT and AlphaVantage. We aggregate article-level signals to the weekly level and evaluate their predictive performance in a classification framework. The best results are achieved by combining GPT-4o and FinBERT, suggesting that LLM-based and conventional financial sentiment models provide complementary predictive information. SHAP analysis further shows that intensity- and uncertainty-related features are among the most important predictors, indicating that the predictive value of news sentiment extends beyond simple polarity. Overall, the results suggest that multi-dimensional LLM-based sentiment measures can improve commodity return forecasting and support energy-market risk monitoring.
超越极性:基于多维LLM情感信号预测WTI原油期货收益 / Beyond Polarity: Multi-Dimensional LLM Sentiment Signals for WTI Crude Oil Futures Return Prediction
这篇论文研究发现,利用大型语言模型从新闻中提取包括相关性、极性、强度、不确定性和前瞻性在内的多维情感信号,比传统的单一极性情感分析更能有效预测WTI原油期货的周度收益,其中情感强度和不确定性是尤其重要的预测指标。
源自 arXiv: 2603.11408