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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-12
📄 Abstract - CAETC: Causal Autoencoding and Treatment Conditioning for Counterfactual Estimation over Time

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient estimation. We introduce causal autoencoding and treatment conditioning (CAETC), a novel method for this problem. Built on adversarial representation learning, our method leverages an autoencoding architecture to learn a partially invertible and treatment-invariant representation, where the outcome prediction task is cast as applying a treatment-specific conditioning on the representation. Our design is independent of the underlying sequence model and can be applied to existing architectures such as long short-term memories (LSTMs) or temporal convolution networks (TCNs). We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world data to demonstrate that CAETC yields significant improvement in counterfactual estimation over existing methods.

顶级标签: medical machine learning theory
详细标签: causal inference counterfactual estimation time series representation learning adversarial training 或 搜索:

CAETC:用于时序反事实估计的因果自编码与治疗条件化方法 / CAETC: Causal Autoencoding and Treatment Conditioning for Counterfactual Estimation over Time


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为CAETC的新方法,它通过结合因果自编码和治疗条件化技术,有效克服了时序观测数据中的混杂偏差,从而更准确地预测不同治疗方案下的潜在结果。

源自 arXiv: 2603.11565