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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-12
📄 Abstract - EnTransformer: A Deep Generative Transformer for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in multivariate time series forecasting problems arising in domains such as energy systems and transportation networks, among many others. Although Transformer-based architectures have recently achieved strong performance for sequence modeling, most probabilistic forecasting approaches rely on restrictive parametric likelihoods or quantile-based objectives. They can struggle to capture complex joint predictive distributions across multiple correlated time series. This work proposes EnTransformer, a deep generative forecasting framework that integrates engression, a stochastic learning paradigm for modeling conditional distributions, with the expressive sequence modeling capabilities of Transformers. The proposed approach injects stochastic noise into the model representation and optimizes an energy-based scoring objective to directly learn the conditional predictive distribution without imposing parametric assumptions. This design enables EnTransformer to generate coherent multivariate forecast trajectories while preserving Transformers' capacity to effectively model long-range temporal dependencies and cross-series interactions. We evaluate our proposed EnTransformer on several widely used benchmarks for multivariate probabilistic forecasting, including Electricity, Traffic, Solar, Taxi, KDD-cup, and Wikipedia datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that EnTransformer produces well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts and consistently outperforms the benchmark models.

顶级标签: machine learning model training model evaluation
详细标签: probabilistic forecasting time series transformer energy-based models multivariate prediction 或 搜索:

EnTransformer:用于多元概率预测的深度生成式Transformer模型 / EnTransformer: A Deep Generative Transformer for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种名为EnTransformer的新型深度学习模型,它巧妙地将一种名为‘engression’的随机学习范式与强大的Transformer架构相结合,能够更准确地预测多个相互关联的时间序列在未来可能出现的各种情况及其不确定性,在多个公开数据集上的测试表现都优于现有方法。

源自 arXiv: 2603.11909