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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-16
📄 Abstract - IntegratingWeather Foundation Model and Satellite to Enable Fine-Grained Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for integrating solar energy into the power grid. However, it remains challenging due to the pronounced diurnal cycle and inherently complex cloud dynamics. Current methods either lack fine-scale resolution (e.g., numerical weather prediction, weather foundation models) or degrade at longer lead times (e.g., satellite extrapolation). We propose Baguan-solar, a two-stage multimodal framework that fuses forecasts from Baguan, a global weather foundation model, with high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery to produce 24- hour irradiance forecasts at kilometer scale. Its decoupled two-stage design first forecasts day-night continuous intermediates (e.g., cloud cover) and then infers irradiance, while its modality fusion jointly preserves fine-scale cloud structures from satellite and large-scale constraints from Baguan forecasts. Evaluated over East Asia using CLDAS as ground truth, Baguan-solar outperforms strong baselines (including ECMWF IFS, vanilla Baguan, and SolarSeer), reducing RMSE by 16.08% and better resolving cloud-induced transients. An operational deployment of Baguan-solar has supported solar power forecasting in an eastern province in China, since July 2025. Our code is accessible at this https URL. git.

顶级标签: multi-modal systems model evaluation
详细标签: solar irradiance forecasting weather foundation model satellite imagery multimodal fusion energy grid integration 或 搜索:

融合天气基础模型与卫星数据实现精细化太阳辐照度预报 / IntegratingWeather Foundation Model and Satellite to Enable Fine-Grained Solar Irradiance Forecasting


1️⃣ 一句话总结

该论文提出了一个名为Baguan-solar的两阶段多模态框架,通过融合全球天气基础模型的预报和高分辨率卫星图像,实现了公里级、未来24小时的高精度太阳辐照度预测,有效解决了现有方法在精细尺度或长期预报上的不足。

源自 arXiv: 2603.14845