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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-16
📄 Abstract - The Importance of Being Smoothly Calibrated

Recent work has highlighted the centrality of smooth calibration [Kakade and Foster, 2008] as a robust measure of calibration error. We generalize, unify, and extend previous results on smooth calibration, both as a robust calibration measure, and as a step towards omniprediction, which enables predictions with low regret for downstream decision makers seeking to optimize some proper loss unknown to the predictor. We present a new omniprediction guarantee for smoothly calibrated predictors, for the class of all bounded proper losses. We smooth the predictor by adding some noise to it, and compete against smoothed versions of any benchmark predictor on the space, where we add some noise to the predictor and then post-process it arbitrarily. The omniprediction error is bounded by the smooth calibration error of the predictor and the earth mover's distance from the benchmark. We exhibit instances showing that this dependence cannot, in general, be improved. We show how this unifies and extends prior results [Foster and Vohra, 1998; Hartline, Wu, and Yang, 2025] on omniprediction from smooth calibration. We present a crisp new characterization of smooth calibration in terms of the earth mover's distance to the closest perfectly calibrated joint distribution of predictions and labels. This also yields a simpler proof of the relation to the lower distance to calibration from [Blasiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran, 2023]. We use this to show that the upper distance to calibration cannot be estimated within a quadratic factor with sample complexity independent of the support size of the predictions. This is in contrast to the distance to calibration, where the corresponding problem was known to be information-theoretically impossible: no finite number of samples suffice [Blasiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran, 2023].

顶级标签: theory machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: calibration omniprediction proper losses earth mover's distance sample complexity 或 搜索:

平滑校准的重要性 / The Importance of Being Smoothly Calibrated


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文证明了,通过给预测模型添加少量噪声使其‘平滑校准’,可以保证模型在各种未知的决策任务中都能做出接近最优的预测,并且揭示了这种校准误差与最优校准分布之间的深刻联系。

源自 arXiv: 2603.16015