基于市场动态与新闻信号的客观错误定价检测:用于筛选被低估足球球员 / Objective Mispricing Detection for Shortlisting Undervalued Football Players via Market Dynamics and News Signals
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一个客观、可复现的框架,通过分析球员历史市场动态等结构化数据和新闻报道的情感语义特征,来检测球员市场价值的错误定价,从而帮助球探更有效地筛选出被低估的球员。
We present a practical, reproducible framework for identifying undervalued football players grounded in objective mispricing. Instead of relying on subjective expert labels, we estimate an expected market value from structured data (historical market dynamics, biographical and contract features, transfer history) and compare it to the observed valuation to define mispricing. We then assess whether news-derived Natural Language Processing (NLP) features (i.e., sentiment statistics and semantic embeddings from football articles) complement market signals for shortlisting undervalued players. Using a chronological (leakage-aware) evaluation, gradient-boosted regression explains a large share of the variance in log-transformed market value. For undervaluation shortlisting, ROC-AUC-based ablations show that market dynamics are the primary signal, while NLP features provide consistent, secondary gains that improve robustness and interpretability. SHAP analyses suggest the dominance of market trends and age, with news-derived volatility cues amplifying signals in high-uncertainty regimes. The proposed pipeline is designed for decision support in scouting workflows, emphasizing ranking/shortlisting over hard classification thresholds, and includes a concise reproducibility and ethics statement.
基于市场动态与新闻信号的客观错误定价检测:用于筛选被低估足球球员 / Objective Mispricing Detection for Shortlisting Undervalued Football Players via Market Dynamics and News Signals
这篇论文提出了一个客观、可复现的框架,通过分析球员历史市场动态等结构化数据和新闻报道的情感语义特征,来检测球员市场价值的错误定价,从而帮助球探更有效地筛选出被低估的球员。
源自 arXiv: 2603.17687