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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-19
📄 Abstract - Unmasking Algorithmic Bias in Predictive Policing: A GAN-Based Simulation Framework with Multi-City Temporal Analysis

Predictive policing systems that direct patrol resources based on algorithmically generated crime forecasts have been widely deployed across US cities, yet their tendency to encode and amplify racial disparities remains poorly understood in quantitative terms. We present a reproducible simulation framework that couples a Generative Adversarial Network GAN with a Noisy OR patrol detection model to measure how racial bias propagates through the full enforcement pipeline from crime occurrence to police contact. Using 145000 plus Part 1 crime records from Baltimore 2017 to 2019 and 233000 plus records from Chicago 2022, augmented with US Census ACS demographic data, we compute four monthly bias metrics across 264 city year mode observations: the Disparate Impact Ratio DIR, Demographic Parity Gap, Gini Coefficient, and a composite Bias Amplification Score. Our experiments reveal extreme and year variant bias in Baltimores detected mode, with mean annual DIR up to 15714 in 2019, moderate under detection of Black residents in Chicago DIR equals 0.22, and persistent Gini coefficients of 0.43 to 0.62 across all conditions. We further demonstrate that a Conditional Tabular GAN CTGAN debiasing approach partially redistributes detection rates but cannot eliminate structural disparity without accompanying policy intervention. Socioeconomic regression analysis confirms strong correlations between neighborhood racial composition and detection likelihood Pearson r equals 0.83 for percent White and r equals negative 0.81 for percent Black. A sensitivity analysis over patrol radius, officer count, and citizen reporting probability reveals that outcomes are most sensitive to officer deployment levels. The code and data are publicly available at this repository.

顶级标签: systems model evaluation machine learning
详细标签: algorithmic bias predictive policing generative adversarial networks fairness metrics simulation framework 或 搜索:

揭示预测性警务中的算法偏见:一种基于生成对抗网络的多城市时序分析模拟框架 / Unmasking Algorithmic Bias in Predictive Policing: A GAN-Based Simulation Framework with Multi-City Temporal Analysis


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本研究通过一个结合生成对抗网络和巡逻检测模型的模拟框架,量化分析了美国预测性警务系统如何在不同城市(如巴尔的摩和芝加哥)中编码并放大种族偏见,发现即使采用技术手段去偏也难以消除结构性不平等,需要政策干预。

源自 arXiv: 2603.18987