引导式预测:用于时间序列预测的表征级监督 / Forecasting with Guidance: Representation-Level Supervision for Time Series Forecasting
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一个名为ReGuider的通用插件方法,通过利用预训练模型作为‘语义老师’来指导目标预测模型学习更丰富的时间动态表征,从而解决传统端到端训练容易丢失关键极端模式、导致预测过于平滑的问题,有效提升了各种时间序列预测模型的准确性。
Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.
引导式预测:用于时间序列预测的表征级监督 / Forecasting with Guidance: Representation-Level Supervision for Time Series Forecasting
这篇论文提出了一个名为ReGuider的通用插件方法,通过利用预训练模型作为‘语义老师’来指导目标预测模型学习更丰富的时间动态表征,从而解决传统端到端训练容易丢失关键极端模式、导致预测过于平滑的问题,有效提升了各种时间序列预测模型的准确性。
源自 arXiv: 2603.24262