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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-03-27
📄 Abstract - Interpretable long-term traffic modelling on national road networks using theory-informed deep learning

Long-term traffic modelling is fundamental to transport planning, but existing approaches often trade off interpretability, transferability, and predictive accuracy. Classical travel demand models provide behavioural structure but rely on strong assumptions and extensive calibration, whereas generic deep learning models capture complex patterns but often lack theoretical grounding and spatial transferability, limiting their usefulness for long-term planning applications. We propose DeepDemand, a theory-informed deep learning framework that embeds key components of travel demand theory to predict long-term highway traffic volumes using external socioeconomic features and road-network structure. The framework integrates a competitive two-source Dijkstra procedure for local origin-destination (OD) region extraction and OD pair screening with a differentiable architecture modelling OD interactions and travel-time deterrence. The model is evaluated using eight years (2017-2024) of observations on the UK strategic road network, covering 5088 highway segments. Under random cross-validation, DeepDemand achieves an R2 of 0.718 and an MAE of 7406 vehicles, outperforming linear, ridge, random forest, and gravity-style baselines. Performance remains strong under spatial cross-validation (R2 = 0.665), indicating good geographic transferability. Interpretability analysis reveals a stable nonlinear travel-time deterrence pattern, key socioeconomic drivers of demand, and polycentric OD interaction structures aligned with major employment centres and transport hubs. These results highlight the value of integrating transport theory with deep learning for interpretable highway traffic modelling and practical planning applications.

顶级标签: systems model training model evaluation
详细标签: traffic modelling deep learning travel demand theory interpretability spatial transferability 或 搜索:

利用理论指导的深度学习对国家公路网络进行可解释的长期交通建模 / Interpretable long-term traffic modelling on national road networks using theory-informed deep learning


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这项研究提出了一个名为DeepDemand的新框架,它将交通需求理论的关键原理融入深度学习模型,从而在准确预测国家公路长期交通流量的同时,还能解释影响交通的社会经济因素和出行时间规律,为交通规划提供了更可靠的工具。

源自 arXiv: 2603.26440