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Abstract - PASM: Population Adaptive Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts Model for Cross-location Hurricane Evacuation Decision Prediction
Accurate prediction of evacuation behavior is critical for disaster preparedness, yet models trained in one region often fail elsewhere. Using a multi-state hurricane evacuation survey, we show this failure goes beyond feature distribution shift: households with similar characteristics follow systematically different decision patterns across states. As a result, single global models overfit dominant responses, misrepresent vulnerable subpopulations, and generalize poorly across locations. We propose Population-Adaptive Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts (PASM), which pairs large language model guided symbolic regression with a mixture-of-experts architecture. PASM discovers human-readable closed-form decision rules, specializes them to data-driven subpopulations, and routes each input to the appropriate expert at inference time. On Hurricanes Harvey and Irma data, transferring from Florida and Texas to Georgia with 100 calibration samples, PASM achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.607, compared to XGBoost (0.404), TabPFN (0.333), GPT-5-mini (0.434), and meta-learning baselines MAML and Prototypical Networks (MCC $\leq$ 0.346). The routing mechanism assigns distinct formula archetypes to subpopulations, so the resulting behavioral profiles are directly interpretable. A fairness audit across four demographic axes finds no statistically significant disparities after Bonferroni correction. PASM closes more than half the cross-location generalization gap while keeping decision rules transparent enough for real-world emergency planning.
PASM:用于跨区域飓风疏散决策预测的群体自适应符号专家混合模型 /
PASM: Population Adaptive Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts Model for Cross-location Hurricane Evacuation Decision Prediction
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文提出了一个名为PASM的新型模型,它能够自动发现可读的决策规则,并针对不同地区的居民群体进行自适应调整,从而显著提升飓风疏散行为预测的准确性和可解释性,解决了现有模型在跨区域应用时效果不佳的问题。