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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-04-13
📄 Abstract - Physics-Informed State Space Models for Reliable Solar Irradiance Forecasting in Off-Grid Systems

The stable operation of off-grid photovoltaic systems requires accurate, computationally efficient solar forecasting. Contemporary deep learning models often suffer from massive computational overhead and physical blindness, generating impossible predictions. This paper introduces the Physics-Informed State Space Model (PISSM) to bridge the gap between efficiency and physical accuracy for edge-deployed microcontrollers. PISSM utilizes a dynamic Hankel matrix embedding to filter stochastic sensor noise by transforming raw meteorological sequences into a robust state space. A Linear State Space Model replaces heavy attention mechanisms, efficiently modeling temporal dependencies for parallel processing. Crucially, a novel Physics-Informed Gating mechanism leverages the Solar Zenith Angle and Clearness Index to structurally bound outputs, ensuring predictions strictly obey diurnal cycles and preventing nocturnal errors. Validated on a multi-year dataset for Omdurman, Sudan, PISSM achieves superior accuracy with fewer than 40,000 parameters, establishing an ultra-lightweight benchmark for real-time off-grid control.

顶级标签: systems model training machine learning
详细标签: solar forecasting state space models physics-informed machine learning edge computing time series 或 搜索:

基于物理信息的状态空间模型:用于离网系统可靠太阳辐照度预测 / Physics-Informed State Space Models for Reliable Solar Irradiance Forecasting in Off-Grid Systems


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种超轻量级的物理信息状态空间模型,它通过结合太阳物理规律和高效算法,能在微型设备上准确预测太阳辐照度,确保离网光伏系统稳定运行,同时避免出现违背常识(如夜间有太阳)的错误预测。

源自 arXiv: 2604.11807