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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-04-14
📄 Abstract - Causal Diffusion Models for Counterfactual Outcome Distributions in Longitudinal Data

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate uncertainty quantification in existing methods. We introduce the Causal Diffusion Model (CDM), the first denoising diffusion probabilistic approach explicitly designed to generate full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes under sequential interventions. CDM employs a novel residual denoising architecture with relational self-attention, capturing intricate temporal dependencies and multimodal outcome trajectories without requiring explicit adjustments (e.g., inverse-probability weighting or adversarial balancing) for confounding. In rigorous evaluation on a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic tumor-growth simulator widely adopted in prior work, CDM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art longitudinal causal inference methods, achieving a 15-30% relative improvement in distributional accuracy (1-Wasserstein distance) while maintaining competitive or superior point-estimate accuracy (RMSE) under high-confounding regimes. By unifying uncertainty quantification and robust counterfactual prediction in complex, sequentially confounded settings, without tailored deconfounding, CDM offers a flexible, high-impact tool for decision support in medicine, policy evaluation, and other longitudinal domains.

顶级标签: medical machine learning model training
详细标签: causal inference diffusion models longitudinal data counterfactual prediction uncertainty quantification 或 搜索:

用于纵向数据反事实结果分布的因果扩散模型 / Causal Diffusion Models for Counterfactual Outcome Distributions in Longitudinal Data


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这项研究提出了一种名为CDM的新型因果扩散模型,它能够直接生成在复杂时序干预下反事实结果的完整概率分布,无需专门调整混杂因素,就在模拟实验中显著提升了预测的准确性和不确定性量化能力。

源自 arXiv: 2604.12992