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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-04-20
📄 Abstract - A Generalized Synthetic Control Method for Baseline Estimation in Demand Response Services

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

顶级标签: machine learning systems model evaluation
详细标签: synthetic control counterfactual prediction demand response causal inference baseline estimation 或 搜索:

需求响应服务中基线估计的广义合成控制方法 / A Generalized Synthetic Control Method for Baseline Estimation in Demand Response Services


1️⃣ 一句话总结

这篇论文提出了一种改进的广义合成控制方法,通过引入动态特征来更准确地预测电力需求响应中的用户基线用电量,从而解决了传统方法忽略时间依赖性的问题,并在实际数据中取得了更好的效果。

源自 arXiv: 2604.18469