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Abstract - Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Risk-Sensitive Estimation via Conditional Value-at-Risk
We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The unknown signal and observation are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown, but assumed to belong to a given type-2 Wasserstein ball of distributions, termed the ambiguity set. The performance of an estimator is measured according to the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the squared estimation error. Within this framework, we study the problem of computing affine estimators that minimize the worst-case CVaR over all distributions in the given ambiguity set. As our main result, we show that, when the nominal distribution at the center of the Wasserstein ball is finitely supported, such estimators can be exactly computed by solving a tractable semidefinite program. We evaluate the proposed estimators on a wholesale electricity price forecasting task using real market data and show that they deliver lower out-of-sample CVaR of squared error compared to existing methods.
基于条件风险价值的瓦瑟斯坦分布鲁棒风险敏感估计 /
Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Risk-Sensitive Estimation via Conditional Value-at-Risk
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出一种新的鲁棒估计方法,通过假设未知信号和观测数据的联合分布属于一个以已知分布为中心的瓦瑟斯坦球(即不确定性集),并利用条件风险价值来衡量估计误差,从而在真实分布不确定时仍能计算出对极端误差有较好稳健性的线性估计器,并在电力价格预测中验证其有效性。