重访主动序列预测驱动的均值估计 / Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation
1️⃣ 一句话总结
这篇论文通过理论和实验发现,在一种结合机器学习预测和人工查询的主动学习框架中,让查询概率主要受一个固定常数(而非模型的不确定性)驱动,反而能获得更精确的估计结果,并对此给出了严格的理论分析。
In this work, we revisit the problem of active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where at each round one must decide the query probability of the ground-truth label upon observing the covariates of a sample. Furthermore, if the label is not queried, the prediction from a machine learning model is used instead. Prior work proposed an elegant scheme that determines the query probability by combining an uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability that encodes a soft constraint on the query probability. We explored different values of the mixing parameter and observed an intriguing empirical pattern: the smallest confidence width tends to occur when the weight on the constant probability is close to one, thereby reducing the influence of the uncertainty-based component. Motivated by this observation, we develop a non-asymptotic analysis of the estimator and establish a data-dependent bound on its confidence interval. Our analysis further suggests that when a no-regret learning approach is used to determine the query probability and control this bound, the query probability converges to the constraint of the max value of the query probability when it is chosen obliviously to the current covariates. We also conduct simulations that corroborate these theoretical findings.
重访主动序列预测驱动的均值估计 / Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation
这篇论文通过理论和实验发现,在一种结合机器学习预测和人工查询的主动学习框架中,让查询概率主要受一个固定常数(而非模型的不确定性)驱动,反而能获得更精确的估计结果,并对此给出了严格的理论分析。
源自 arXiv: 2604.18569