线性系统辨识的CLT最优参数误差界 / CLT-Optimal Parameter Error Bounds for Linear System Identification
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文发现现有最先进的参数恢复误差界在估计线性动态系统时,会高估实际误差达状态维度倍,并通过引入新的二阶分解方法,首次推导出了与中心极限定理匹配的最优有限样本误差界。
There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current state-of-the-art bounds do not accurately capture the statistical complexity of system identification, even in the most fundamental setting of estimating a discrete-time linear dynamical system (LDS) via ordinary least-squares regression (OLS). Specifically, we utilize asymptotic normality to identify classes of problem instances for which current bounds overstate the squared parameter error, in both spectral and Frobenius norm, by a factor of the state-dimension of the system. Informed by this discrepancy, we then sharpen the OLS parameter error bounds via a novel second-order decomposition of the parameter error, where crucially the lower-order term is a matrix-valued martingale that we show correctly captures the CLT scaling. From our analysis we obtain finite-sample bounds for both (i) stable systems and (ii) the many-trajectories setting that match the instance-specific optimal rates up to constant factors in Frobenius norm, and polylogarithmic state-dimension factors in spectral norm.
线性系统辨识的CLT最优参数误差界 / CLT-Optimal Parameter Error Bounds for Linear System Identification
本文发现现有最先进的参数恢复误差界在估计线性动态系统时,会高估实际误差达状态维度倍,并通过引入新的二阶分解方法,首次推导出了与中心极限定理匹配的最优有限样本误差界。
源自 arXiv: 2604.21270