面向多元共形预测的核非一致性评分 / A Kernel Nonconformity Score for Multivariate Conformal Prediction
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为多元核评分(MKS)的新方法,它能够将预测残差向量压缩为标量,同时自动捕捉数据分布的内在几何结构,从而生成更紧凑、适应性更强的预测区域,并在高维数据下显著减小预测区域体积,同时保持可靠的覆盖保证。
Multivariate conformal prediction requires nonconformity scores that compress residual vectors into scalars while preserving certain implicit geometric structure of the residual distribution. We introduce a Multivariate Kernel Score (MKS) that produces prediction regions that explicitly adapt to this geometry. We show that the proposed score resembles the Gaussian process posterior variance, unifying Bayesian uncertainty quantification with the coverage guarantees of frequentist-type. Moreover, the MKS can be decomposed into an anisotropic Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) that interpolates between kernel density estimation and covariance-weighted distance. We prove finite-sample coverage guarantees and establish convergence rates that depend on the effective rank of the kernel-based covariance operator rather than the ambient dimension, enabling dimension-free adaptation. On regression tasks, the MKS reduces the volume of prediction region significantly, compared to ellipsoidal baselines while maintaining nominal coverage, with larger gains at higher dimensions and tighter coverage levels.
面向多元共形预测的核非一致性评分 / A Kernel Nonconformity Score for Multivariate Conformal Prediction
本文提出了一种名为多元核评分(MKS)的新方法,它能够将预测残差向量压缩为标量,同时自动捕捉数据分布的内在几何结构,从而生成更紧凑、适应性更强的预测区域,并在高维数据下显著减小预测区域体积,同时保持可靠的覆盖保证。
源自 arXiv: 2604.21595