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Abstract - IMPA-Net: Meteorology-Aware Multi-Scale Attention and Dynamic Loss for Extreme Convective Radar Nowcasting
Short-range prediction of convective precipitation from weather radar observations is essential for severe weather warnings. However, deep learning models trained with pixel-wise error metrics tend to produce overly smooth forecasts that suppress intense echoes critical for hazard detection. This issue is exacerbated by insufficient multi-scale feature interaction and suboptimal fusion of heterogeneous geophysical inputs. We propose IMPA-Net (Integrated Multi-scale Predictive Attention Network), a deterministic 0-2 hour nowcasting framework that addresses these limitations through meteorologically-informed designs at the input, architecture, and loss function levels. A parameter-free Spatial Mixer reorganizes heterogeneous input channels at the mesoscale-$\gamma$ neighborhood (~2 km) via deterministic channel permutation, providing a structured cross-field prior. An integrated multi-scale predictive attention module serves as the spatiotemporal translator, capturing dynamics from mesoscale-$\beta$ to mesoscale-$\gamma$ scales. A Meteorologically-Aware Dynamic Loss employs three-level asymmetric weighting -- adapting across training epochs, storm intensity, and forecast lead time -- to counteract regression-to-the-mean. Evaluated against seven baselines on a multi-source radar dataset over eastern China, IMPA-Net raises the Heidke Skill Score at $\geq$45 dBZ from 0.049 (SimVP baseline) to 0.143 under matched settings. Relative to pySTEPS, it provides a better trade-off between severe-event detection and false-alarm control. Spectral analysis confirms preserved energy across mesoscale bands where competing methods show progressive smoothing. These improvements are shown within a single domain and convective regime; generalizability to other orographic and climatic regions remains to be tested.
IMPA-Net:面向极端对流雷达临近预报的气象感知多尺度注意力与动态损失网络 /
IMPA-Net: Meteorology-Aware Multi-Scale Attention and Dynamic Loss for Extreme Convective Radar Nowcasting
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种名为IMPA-Net的深度学习模型,通过在数据输入、网络结构和损失函数中引入气象学知识,显著改进了0-2小时内的极端对流降水预报,相比传统方法能更准确地捕捉强暴雨信号,同时减少误报。