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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-04-29
📄 Abstract - Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the critical need for updated models, a unified benchmark evaluating feature contributions across all structurally diverse Norwegian bidding zones remains lacking. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of electricity price forecasting across all five Norwegian Nord Pool bidding zones. We constructed a multimodal hourly dataset spanning 2019--2025 and evaluated eight forecasting model families including LightGBM, ARX, and advanced deep learning architectures using a strictly causal test set. We implemented robust rolling-origin backtesting, leave-one-group-out feature ablation, and conditional regime analysis to dissect model performance and feature utility. Our results show that LightGBM achieves the best performance in every zone with MAE ranging from 1.64 to 5.74~EUR/MWh, while the ridge ARX model remains a highly competitive linear benchmark in northern zones. Feature ablation reveals that models relying solely on lagged prices and calendar variables achieve high accuracy and often match or exceed full multimodal integration. However, conditional regime analysis demonstrates that external features like reservoir levels and gas prices remain crucial to stratify forecast errors, which consistently increase under stressed market regimes. This highlights the practical value of model interpretability and regime awareness for decision makers facing structural changes in market dynamics.

顶级标签: machine learning energy model evaluation
详细标签: electricity price forecasting feature ablation lightgbm regime analysis 或 搜索:

后危机时代挪威五个竞价区的电价预测 / Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文研究了2021-2022年能源危机后挪威五个电价区的预测问题,发现使用LightGBM模型能取得最佳效果,且仅依赖历史价格和日历特征就能达到高精度,但引入水库水位和天然气价格等外部特征,在极端市场条件下对提高预测可靠性至关重要。

源自 arXiv: 2604.26634