Audio-based stuttering systems to date have been trained for detection -- what disfluency is present now -- leaving prediction, the capability needed for closed-loop intervention, unstudied at deployable scale. We train a 616K-parameter CNN on SEP-28k (Apple, 20,131 three-second clips) to predict whether the next contiguous clip contains any disfluency. (1) Severity-selective precursor signal: on the episode-grouped test set, aggregate preblock AUC is modest (0.581 [0.542, 0.619]), but stratifying by upcoming event type reveals concentration on clinically severe events -- blocks 0.601 [0.554, 0.651] and sound repetitions 0.617 [0.567, 0.667] both exclude chance, while fillers (0.45) and word repetitions (0.49) are at chance. The aggregate objective converges to a severity-selective predictor because severe events carry prosodic precursors; fillers do not. (2) Cross-population transfer: without fine-tuning, the same checkpoint applied to 1,024 pediatric Children-Who-Stutter utterances (FluencyBank Teaching) attains AUC 0.674 detection and 0.655 prediction; DisfluencySpeech and LibriStutter reach 0.58-0.60 AUC. (3) Deployable on-device: lossless export to CoreML (1.19 MB), ONNX (40 KB), TFLite. Neural-Engine latency per 3 s window: 0.25 ms (iPhone 17 Pro Max, A19 Pro) to 0.55 ms (iPhone SE 3rd-gen and M1 Max). A 4 Hz streaming simulation uses 0.54% of the real-time budget. Platt-calibrated outputs (test ECE 0.010, from 0.177 raw). Five negative ablations -- output-level Future-Guided Learning, multi-clip GRU, time-axis concatenation, asymmetric focal loss, direct block-targeted training -- none improved over the vanilla baseline.
基于三秒音频预测即将发生的口吃事件：分层评估揭示严重程度选择性前兆，模型完全部署于设备端 / Predicting Upcoming Stuttering Events from Three-Second Audio: Stratified Evaluation Reveals Severity-Selective Precursors, and the Model Deploys Fully On-Device
本文首次实现了一种轻量级的音频模型（61.6万参数），能够仅凭3秒的语音片段预测接下来是否会发生口吃（尤其是重度口吃，如声音重复或言语阻塞），该模型准确率达到0.60以上的AUC，且可直接在手机等设备上以极低延迟（0.25-0.55毫秒）运行，无需联网或远程处理。
源自 arXiv: 2604.27279
