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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-03
📄 Abstract - MIRA: A Score for Conditional Distribution Accuracy and Model Comparison

We introduce Mira, a sample-based score for assessing the accuracy of a candidate conditional distribution using only joint samples from the true data-generating process. Relying on the principle that distributions coincide if they assign equal probability mass to all regions, we derive an analytic expression for the Mira statistic, whose average defines the Mira score. This formulation further allows us to compute theoretical reference values and uncertainty estimates when the candidate distribution matches the true one. This framework enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the true data generating process. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

顶级标签: machine learning model evaluation
详细标签: conditional distribution model comparison bayesian inference score 或 搜索:

MIRA:一种用于条件分布准确性和模型比较的评分方法 / MIRA: A Score for Conditional Distribution Accuracy and Model Comparison


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为MIRA的评分方法,仅利用真实数据中的联合样本,就能评估一个候选条件分布是否准确,从而直接比较不同模型的优劣,避免了传统贝叶斯模型比较中计算复杂证据的难题。

源自 arXiv: 2605.02014