因果软件工程:愿景与路线图 / Causal Software Engineering: A Vision and Roadmap
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出用因果关系模型代替传统相关性分析,帮助软件工程师在不确定性下做出更准确决策——例如预测更改系统配置的实际影响或诊断事故的根本原因,并为此提供了从技术工具到团队落地的分阶段路线图。
Software engineering increasingly involves making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, using signals from code, field data, and socio-technical processes. Recent AI-driven support (e.g., anomaly detection, predictive analytics, AIOps, as well as LLM-based agents) has amplified engineers' ability to detect patterns and synthesize content and recommendations, but many critical questions are interventional or counterfactual: What is the expected impact of changing a load-balancing strategy? Would an outage have been avoided under a different release plan? Correlational models answer "what tends to co-occur"; they struggle to answer "what would happen if we act." We propose Causal Software Engineering (CSE) as a future paradigm in which causal models and causal reasoning systematically inform activities across the software lifecycle, augmenting existing practices with explicit assumptions, uncertainty-aware effect estimates, and counterfactual diagnosis. We outline (i) a causal-first workflow view spanning development and operations, (ii) a staged roadmap for tools and organizational adoption, and (iii) an evaluation and benchmark agenda for measuring progress.
因果软件工程:愿景与路线图 / Causal Software Engineering: A Vision and Roadmap
本文提出用因果关系模型代替传统相关性分析,帮助软件工程师在不确定性下做出更准确决策——例如预测更改系统配置的实际影响或诊断事故的根本原因,并为此提供了从技术工具到团队落地的分阶段路线图。
源自 arXiv: 2605.02454