均值独立与线性条件下的因果发现 / Causal discovery under mean independence and linearity
1️⃣ 一句话总结
本文提出了一种新的因果发现方法LiMIAM,它通过放宽传统方法中“扰动项必须完全独立”的严格假设,仅要求扰动项在均值上互不依赖,从而在数据存在依赖性(如共同波动或缩放效应)时仍能准确还原变量之间的因果顺序,并通过实际石油市场数据展示了该方法优于现有技术的效果。
Causal discovery methods such as LiNGAM identify causal structure from observational data by assuming mutually independent disturbances. This assumption is fragile: shared volatility, common scale effects, or other forms of dependence can cause the methods to recover the wrong causal order, even with infinite data. We introduce the Linear Mean-Independent Acyclic Model (LiMIAM), which replaces full independence with weaker one-sided mean-independence restrictions on the disturbances. Under finite-order consequences of these restrictions, source nodes are generically identifiable, and hence a compatible causal order can be recovered recursively. Our proof is constructive and leads to DirectLiMIAM, a sequential residual-based algorithm for causal discovery under dependent noise. In simulations with mean-independent but dependent disturbances, DirectLiMIAM outperforms LiNGAM methods. A large-scale empirical application to the oil market highlights the implausibility of the independence assumption and the ability of DirectLiMIAM to recover a realistic causal ordering, from policy to production and from prices to inflation.
均值独立与线性条件下的因果发现 / Causal discovery under mean independence and linearity
本文提出了一种新的因果发现方法LiMIAM,它通过放宽传统方法中“扰动项必须完全独立”的严格假设,仅要求扰动项在均值上互不依赖,从而在数据存在依赖性(如共同波动或缩放效应)时仍能准确还原变量之间的因果顺序,并通过实际石油市场数据展示了该方法优于现有技术的效果。
源自 arXiv: 2605.04381