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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-06
📄 Abstract - Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation

Negotiation agents must infer what their counterpart values, update those beliefs over dialogue turns, and choose actions under uncertainty. End-to-end large language models (LLMs) can imitate negotiation dialogue, but their opponent beliefs are usually implicit and difficult to inspect. We propose BOND (Bayesian Opponent-belief Negotiation Distillation), a framework for auditable negotiation. BOND consists of an LLM-based Bayesian teacher that scores dialogue contexts against the six possible opponent priority orderings, updates a posterior over those orderings, and uses the posterior for menu-based decision making, as well as a smaller 8B student language model that emits both negotiation actions and normalized posterior beliefs as tagged text. In the CaSiNo negotiation dataset, BOND outperforms the state-of-the-art and achieves mean Brier score 0.085 over opponent-priority posteriors. The distilled student preserves much of this belief signal, achieving Brier 0.114, below the uniform six-ordering reference of 5/36, approximately 0.139. Compared with a 70B structured-CoT baseline, the significantly smaller 8B student model yields substantially better elicited posterior calibration. We further showcase auditability through posterior trajectories, belief-versus-policy error decomposition, and posterior-prefix interventions. These diagnostics reveal that distillation preserves a scoreable belief report more strongly than causal belief-conditioned control, making weak belief-action coupling visible, not hidden.

顶级标签: llm agents
详细标签: negotiation bayesian inference distillation belief states auditability 或 搜索:

将贝叶斯信念状态蒸馏到语言模型中用于可审计的谈判 / Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出了一种名为BOND的方法,通过让一个大型语言模型充当贝叶斯教师,实时更新对对手偏好的信念,并将这些信念蒸馏到一个更小的学生模型中,使得谈判AI既能高效决策,又能输出清晰、可检查的信念报告,从而解决了大模型在谈判中信念不透明、难以审计的问题。

源自 arXiv: 2605.04507