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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-07
📄 Abstract - Why Global LLM Leaderboards Are Misleading: Small Portfolios for Heterogeneous Supervised ML

Ranking LLMs via pairwise human feedback underpins current leaderboards for open-ended tasks, such as creative writing and problem-solving. We analyze ~89K comparisons in 116 languages from 52 LLMs from Arena, and show that the best-fit global Bradley-Terry (BT) ranking is misleading. Nearly 2/3 of the decisive votes cancel out, and even the top 50 models according to the global BT ranking are statistically indistinguishable (pairwise win probabilities are at most 0.53 within the top 50 models). We trace this failure to strong, structured heterogeneity of opinions across language, task, and time. Moreover, we find an important characteristic - *language* plays a key role. Grouping by language (and families) increases the agreement of votes massively, resulting in two orders of magnitude higher spread in the ELO scores (i.e., very consistent rankings). What appears as global noise is in fact a mixture of coherent but conflicting subpopulations. To address such heterogeneity in supervised machine learning, we introduce the framework of $(\lambda, \nu)$-portfolios, which are small sets of models that achieve a prediction error at most $\lambda$, "covering" at least a $\nu$ fraction of users. We formulate this as a variant of the set cover problem and provide guarantees using the VC dimension of the underlying set system. On the Arena data, our algorithms recover just 5 distinct BT rankings that cover over 96% of votes at a modest $\lambda$, compared to the 21% coverage by the global ranking. We also provide a portfolio of 6 LLMs that cover twice as many votes as the top-6 LLMs from a global ranking. We further construct portfolios for a classification problem on the COMPAS dataset using an ensemble of fairness-regularized classification models and show that these portfolios can be used to detect blind spots in the data, which might be of independent interest to policymakers.

顶级标签: llm model evaluation machine learning
详细标签: leaderboard ranking heterogeneous opinions bradley-terry portfolio 或 搜索:

为什么全球大语言模型排行榜具有误导性:面向异构监督学习的小型模型组合 / Why Global LLM Leaderboards Are Misleading: Small Portfolios for Heterogeneous Supervised ML


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文通过分析来自116种语言的50多个大语言模型的近9万次人类对比投票,指出全球统一的排名(如Bradley-Terry得分)具有误导性——因为不同语言、任务和时间的用户偏好存在强烈差异,导致排名结果内部矛盾;作者提出了一种“小模型组合”方法,只需选出少数几个模型就能覆盖绝大多数用户的偏好,从而更公平、有效地反映模型的实际表现。

源自 arXiv: 2605.06656