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arXiv 提交日期: 2026-05-11
📄 Abstract - Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-Informed Priors

Modern predictive systems encode beliefs that can act as useful prior information for statistical inference in data-limited settings. Using them for prior construction introduces a tradeoff: an informative prior built from a predictive model can sharpen inference from limited data, but also risks propagating error from the model into the posterior. We propose a framework for AI-informed prior elicitation that mitigates this tension by rectifying the AI-induced law that generates synthetic data before using it to inform a prior. The rectified law can be embedded into synthetic data-driven prior elicitation techniques, including as a base measure in a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the data-generating process. We refer to the resulting prior and corresponding posterior as the rectified AI prior and rectified AI posterior. We establish Gaussian asymptotics for the rectified AI posterior under non-vanishing prior strength and derive a first-order expression for its centering bias. Our rectified AI priors substantially reduce bias compared to standard approaches, improve the coverage of credible intervals, and make AI-powered prior information more reliable. We additionally apply the rectified AI prior to a real skin disease classification task and show that it can meaningfully boost predictive performance.

顶级标签: machine learning theory
详细标签: bayesian inference prior elicitation ai priors bias reduction uncertainty quantification 或 搜索:

利用可靠的人工智能先验知识提升贝叶斯推断能力 / Supercharging Bayesian Inference with Reliable AI-Informed Priors


1️⃣ 一句话总结

本文提出一种新方法,通过修正人工智能模型生成的合成数据中的偏差,将其转化为更可靠的先验信息,从而在数据有限的场景下显著提升贝叶斯推断的准确性和可信度,并已在皮肤疾病分类任务中验证了其有效性。

源自 arXiv: 2605.09834